Tag Archives: Stats

Betting on UFC Fights – A Statistical Data Analysis

Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) is an incredibly entertaining and technical sport to watch. It’s become one of the fastest growing sports in the world. I’ve been following MMA organizations like the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) for almost eight years now, and in that time have developed a great appreciation for MMA techniques. After watching dozens of fights, you begin to pick up on what moves win and when, and spot strengths and weaknesses in certain fighters. However, I’ve always wanted to test my knowledge against the actual stats – like do accomplished wrestlers really beat fighters with little wrestling experience?

To do this, we need fight data, so I crawled and parsed all the MMA fights from Sherdog.com. This data includes fighter profiles (birth date, weight, height, disciplines, training camp, location) and fight records (challenger, opponent, time, round, outcome, event). After some basic data cleaning, I had a dataset of 11,886 fight records, 1,390 of which correspond to the UFC.

I then trained a random forest classifier from this data to see if a state-of-the-art machine learning model can identify any winning and losing characteristics. Over cross-validation with 10 folds, the resulting model scored a surprisingly decent AUC score of 0.69; a AUC score closer to 0.5 would indicate that the model can’t predict winning fights any better than random or fair coin flips.

So there may be interesting patterns in this data … Feeling motivated, I ran exhaustive searches over the data to find feature combinations that indicate winning or losing behaviors. Many hours later, several dozens of such insights were found.

Here are the most interesting ones (stars indicate statistical significance at the 5% level):

Top UFC Insights

Fighters older than 32 years of age will more likely lose

This was validated in 173 out of 277 (62%) fights*

Fighters with more than 6 TKO victories fighting opponents older than 32 years of age will more likely win

This was validated in 47 out of 60 (78%) fights*

Fighters from Japan will more likely lose

This was validated in 36 out of 51 (71%) fights*

Fighters who have lost 2 or more KOs will more likely lose

This was validated in 54 out of 84 (64%) fights*

Fighters with 3x or more decision wins and are greater than 3% taller than their opponents will more likely win

This was validated in 32 out of 38 (84%) fights*

Fighters who have won 3x or more decisions than their opponent will more likely win

This was validated in 142 out of 235 (60%) fights*

Fighters with no wrestling background vs fighters who do have one more likely lose

This was validated in 136 out of 212 (64%) fights*

Fighters fighting opponents with 3x or less decision wins and are on a 6 fight (or better) winning streak more likely win

This was validated in 30 out of 39 (77%) fights*

Fighters younger than their opponents by 3 or more years in age will more likely win

This was validated in 324 out of 556 (58%) fights*

Fighters who haven’t fought in more than 210 days will more likely lose

This was validated in 162 out of 276 (59%) fights*

Fighters taller than their opponents by 3% will more likely win

This was validated in 159 out of 274 (58%) fights*

Fighters who have lost less by submission than their opponents will more likely win

This was validated in 295 out of 522 (57%) fights*

Fighters who have lost 6 or more fights will more likely lose

This was validated in 172 out of 291 (60%) fights*

Fighters who have 18 or more wins and never had a 2 fight losing streak more likely win

This was validated in 79 out of 126 (63%) fights*

Fighters who have lost back to back fights will more likely lose

This was validated in 514 out of 906 (57%) fights*

Fighters with 0 TKO victories will more likely lose

This was validated in 90 out of 164 (55%) fights

Fighters fighting opponents out of Greg Jackson’s camp will more likely lose

This was validated in 38 out of 63 (60%) fights

 

Top Insights over All Fights

Fighters with 15 or more wins that have 50% less losses than their opponents will more likely win

This was validated in 239 out of 307 (78%) fights*

Fighters fighting American opponents will more likely win

This was validated in 803 out of 1303 (62%) fights*

Fighters with 2x more (or better) wins than their opponents and those opponents lost their last fights will more likely win

This was validated in 709 out of 1049 (68%) fights*

Fighters who’ve lost their last 4 fights in a row will more likely lose

This was validated in 345 out of 501 (68%) fights*

Fighters currently on a 5 fight (or better) winning streak will more likely win

This was validated in 1797 out of 2960 (61%) fights*

Fighters with 3x or more wins than their opponents will more likely win

This was validated in 2831 out of 4764 (59%) fights*

Fighters who have lost 7 or more times will more likely lose

This was validated in 2551 out of 4547 (56%) fights*

Fighters with no jiu jitsu in their background versus fighters who do have it more likely lose

This was validated in 334 out of 568 (59%) fights*

Fighters who have lost by submission 5 or more times will more likely lose

This was validated in 1166 out of 1982 (59%) fights*

Fighters in the Middleweight division who fought their last fight more recently will more likely win

This was validated in 272 out of 446 (61%) fights*

Fighters in the Lightweight division fighting 6 foot tall fighters (or higher) will more likely win

This was validated in 50 out of 83 (60%) fights

 

Note – I separated UFC fights from all fights because regulations and rules can vary across MMA organizations.

Most of these insights are intuitive except for maybe the last one and an earlier one which states 77% of the time fighters beat opponents who are on 6 fight or better winning streaks but have 3x less decision wins.

Many of these insights demonstrate statistically significant winning biases. I couldn’t help but wonder – could we use these insights to effectively bet on UFC fights? For the sake of simplicity, what happens if we make bets based on just the very first insight which states that fighters older than 32 years old will more likely lose (with a 62% chance)?

To evaluate this betting rule, I pulled the most recent UFC fights where in each fight there’s a fighter that’s at least 33 years old. I found 52 such fights, spanning 2/5/2011 – 8/14/2011. I placed a $10K bet on the younger fighter in each of these fights.

Surprisingly, this rule calls 33 of these 52 fights correctly (63% – very close to the rule’s observed 62% overall win rate). Each fight called incorrectly results in a loss of $10,000, and for each of the fights called correctly I obtained the corresponding Bodog money line (betting odds) to compute the actual winning amount.

I’ve compiled the betting data for these fights in this Google spreadsheet.

Note, for 6 of the fights that our rule called correctly, the money lines favored the losing fighters.

Let’s compute the overall return of our simple betting rule:

For each of these 52 fights, we risked $10,000, or in all $520,000
We lost 19 times, or a total of $190,000
Based on the betting odds of the 33 fights we called correctly (see spreadsheet), we won $255,565.44
Profit = $255,565.44 – $190,000 = $65,565.44
Return on investment (ROI) = 100 * 65,565.44 / 520,000 = 12.6%

 

That’s a very decent return.

For kicks, let’s compare this to investing in the stock market over the same period of time. If we buy the S&P 500 with a conventional dollar cost averaging strategy to spread out the $520,000 investment, then we get a ROI of -7.31%. Ouch.

Keep in mind that we’re using a simple betting rule that’s based on a single insight. The random forest model, which optimizes over many insights, should predict better and be applicable to more fights.

Please note that I’m just poking fun at stocks – I’m not saying betting on UFC fights with this rule is a more sound investment strategy (risk should be thoroughly examined – the variance of the performance of the rule should be evaluated over many periods of time).

The main goal here is to demonstrate the effectiveness of data driven approaches for better understanding the patterns in a sport like MMA. The UFC could leverage these data mining approaches for coming up with fairer matches (dismiss fights that match obvious winning and losing biases). I don’t favor this, but given many fans want to see knockouts, the UFC could even use these approaches to design fights that will likely avoid decisions or submissions.

Anyways, there’s so much more analysis I’ve done (and haven’t done) over this data. Will post more results when cycles permit. Stay tuned.

Advertisements

26 Comments

Filed under AI, Blog Stuff, Computer Science, Data Mining, Economics, Machine Learning, Research, Science, Statistics, Trends

Some Stats about Twitter’s Content

Near the end of July, I crawled a sample of ~10M tweets. On my way over from Open Hack Day NYC yesterday I finally got some time to do some preliminary analysis of this data. Several posts have analyzed Twitter’s traffic stats [TechCrunch] [Mashable] [zooie], so I thought I’d focus more on the content here.

Duplication

By compressing the data and comparing the before and after sizes, one can get a pretty decent understanding of the duplication factor. To do this, I extracted just the raw text messages, sorted them, and then ran gzip over the sorted set.

Compression ratio

>>> 284023259 / 739273532 bytes

0.38419238171778614

Typically, for text compression, gzip-like programs can achieve around 50% without the sort (and sorting typically helps), and here we get 38%. A standard text corpus consists of much larger document sizes, so it’s interesting to see a similar or larger duplication factor for tweets.

We can dive even deeper into this area by analyzing the term overlap statistics to measure near duplication, or messages that aren’t necessarily identical but are close enough.

To do this, I first cleaned the text (removed stopwords, stemmed terms, normalized case). Interesting, after cleaning the text, the average number of tokens for a message is just 6.28, or 2.5x the size of a standard web search query.

Then, I employed consistent term sampling to select N representatives for each cleaned message and coalesced the representatives together as a single key. By comparing the total number of unique keys to messages, one can infer the near duplication factor. Also, the higher the N, the higher the threshold is to match (so N >= 6, 6 being the average number of tokens per message, probably means that two messages that generate the same key are exact duplicates).

You’ll notice N >=6 converges around 84%, implying that after cleaning the text, 16% of the messages exactly match some other message. Additionally, when N = 2 (or requiring 2 / 6 tokens or 33% of the text on average) to match, 45% of the messages collide with other messages in the corpus. At N = 2, matching often means the messages discuss the same general topic, but aren’t close near duplicates.

N Term Samples Unique Keys Coverage
8 8548695 0.8356
6 8512672 0.8321
5 8476590 0.8286
4 8366391 0.8177
3 8098400 0.7916
2 5716566 0.5588
1 1013783 0.0991

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

URLs

URLs are present in ~18% of the tweets

Of those, ~65% of the URLs are unique

70K Unique Domains covering 2M URLS

Top Domains:

[‘bit.ly’, ‘tinyurl.com’, ‘twitpic.com’, ‘is.gd’, ‘myloc.me’, ‘ow.ly’, ‘ustre.am’, ‘cli.gs’, ‘tr.im’, ‘plurk.com’, ‘ff.im’, ‘tumblr.com’, ‘yfrog.com’, ‘140mafia.com’, ‘u.mavrev.com’, ‘twurl.nl’, ‘tweeterfollow.com’, ‘mypict.me’, ‘viagracan.com’, ‘vipfollowers.com’, ‘morefollowers.net’, ‘digg.com’, ‘tweeteradder.com’, ‘ping.fm’, ‘tiny.cc’, ‘followersnow.com’, ‘short.to’, ‘twit.ac’, ‘snipr.com’, ‘wefollow.com’, ‘tweet.sg’, ‘url4.eu’, ‘the-twitter-follow-train.info’, ‘fwix.com’, ‘budurl.com’, ‘su.pr’, ‘shar.es’, ‘tinychat.com’, ‘snipurl.com’, ‘loopt.us’, ‘migre.me’, ‘flic.kr’, ‘myspace.com’, ‘snurl.com’, ‘twitgoo.com’, ‘zshare.net’, ‘post.ly’, ‘bkite.com’, ‘yes.com’, ‘flickr.com’, ‘twitter.com’, ‘artistsforschapelle.com’, ‘140army.com’, ‘youtube.com’, ‘x.imeem.com’, ‘pic.gd’, ‘TwitterBackgrounds.com’, ‘raptr.com’, ‘twt.gs’, ‘twitthis.com’, ‘mobypicture.com’, ‘tobtr.com’, ‘ad.vu’, ‘sml.vg’, ‘rubyurl.com’, ‘tinylink.com’, ‘redirx.com’, ‘a2a.me’, ‘eCa.sh’, ‘vimeo.com’, ‘meadd.com’, ‘hotjobs.yahoo.com’, ‘doiop.com’, ‘myurl.in’, ‘urlpire.com’, ‘buzzup.com’, ‘freead.im’, ‘youradder.com’, ‘facebook.com’, ‘adf.ly’, ‘justin.tv’, ‘twitvid.com’, ‘adjix.com’, ‘twcauses.com’, ‘lkbk.nu’, ‘tlre.us’, ‘htxt.it’, ‘stickam.com’, ‘twubs.com’, ‘isy.gs’, ‘reverbnation.com’, ‘news.bbc.co.uk’, ‘sn.im’, ‘twibes.com’, ‘ustream.tv’, ‘trim.su’, ‘hashjobs.com’, ‘blogtv.com’, ‘jobs-cb.de’, ‘xsaimex.com’]

Retweets

~4% of messages are retweets

Replied @Users

~1M total replied-to users in this data set

37% of tweets contain ‘@x’ terms

Most Popular Replied-to Users (almost all celebrities):

[‘@mileycyrus’, ‘@jonasbrothers’, ‘@ddlovato’, ‘@mitchelmusso’, ‘@donniewahlberg’, ‘@souljaboytellem’, ‘@tommcfly’, ‘@addthis’, ‘@officialtila’, ‘@johncmayer’, ‘@shanedawson’, ‘@bowwow614’, ‘@jordanknight’, ‘@ryanseacrest’, ‘@perezhilton’, ‘@jonathanrknight’, ‘@petewentz’, ‘@tweetmeme’, ‘@adamlambert’, ‘@david_henrie’, ‘@dealsplus’, ‘@dwighthoward’, ‘@iamdiddy’, ‘@lancearmstrong’, ‘@songzyuuup’, ‘@imeem’, ‘@blakeshelton’, ‘@dannymcfly’, ‘@lilduval’, ‘@selenagomez’, ‘@markhoppus’, ‘@yelyahwilliams’, ‘@therealpickler’, ‘@stephenfry’, ‘@mrtweet.’, ‘@taylorswift13’, ‘@michaelsarver1’, ‘@davidarchie’, ‘@the_real_shaq’, ‘@tyrese4real’, ‘@britneyspears’, ‘@106andpark’, ‘@ashleytisdale’, ‘@mariahcarey’, ‘@kimkardashian’, ‘@wale’, ‘@mashable’, ‘@programapanico’, ‘@therealjordin’, ‘@listensto’, ‘@misskeribaby’, ‘@alyssa_milano’, ‘@alexalltimelow’, ‘@aplusk’, ‘@thisisdavina’, ‘@breakingnews:’, ‘@peterfacinelli’, ‘@truebloodhbo’, ‘@mgiraudofficial’, ‘@tonyspallelli’, ‘@mtv’, ‘@jackalltimelow’, ‘@dfizzy’, ‘@youngq’, ‘@tomfelton’, ‘@pooch_dog’, ‘@jonaskevin’, ‘@princesammie’, ‘@nkotb’, ‘@christianpior’, ‘@cthagod’, ‘@johnlloydtaylor’, ‘@neilhimself’, ‘@moontweet’, ‘@katyperry’, ‘@danilogentili’, ‘@mchammer’, ‘@rainnwilson’, ‘@joeymcintyre’, ‘@30secondstomars’, ‘@phillyd’, ‘@heidimontag’, ‘@mrpeterandre’, ‘@andyclemmensen’, ‘@crystalchappell’, ‘@kevindurant35’, ‘@huckluciano’, ‘@dannygokey’, ‘@jaketaustin’, ‘@revrunwisdom’, ‘@jamesmoran’, ‘@musewire’, ‘@dannywood’, ‘@nickiminaj’, ‘@akgovsarahpalin’, ‘@terrencej106’, ‘@mashable:’, ‘@drewryanscott’, ‘@mrtweet’, ‘@necolebitchie’, ‘@lilduval:’, ‘@willie_day26’, ‘@kirstiealley’, ‘@betthegame’, ‘@radiomsn’, ‘@alancarr’, ‘@rafinhabastos’, ‘@krisallen4real’, ‘@iamjericho’, ‘@breakingnews’, ‘@babygirlparis’, ‘@ladygaga’, ‘@chris_daughtry’, ‘@hypem’, ‘@danecook’, ‘@imcudi’, ‘@jeepersmedia’, ‘@buckhollywood’, ‘@kimmyt22’, ‘@giulianarancic’, ‘@chrisbrogan’, ‘@nasa’, ‘@addtoany’, ‘@nickcarter’, ‘@debbiefletcher’, ‘@marcoluque’, ‘@shaundiviney’, ‘@ogochocinco’, ‘@twitter’, ‘@eddieizzard’, ‘@youngbillymays’, ‘@real_ron_artest’, ‘@pink’, ‘@laurenconrad’, ‘@rubarrichello’, ‘@ianjamespoulter’, ‘@liltwist’, ‘@teyanataylor’, ‘@dougiemcfly’, ‘@theellenshow’, ‘@robkardashian’, ‘@sherrieshepherd’, ‘@justinbieber’, ‘@paulaabdul’, ‘@jason_manford’, ‘@jaredleto’, ‘@tracecyrus’, ‘@itsonalexa’, ‘@ddlovato:’, ‘@khloekardashian’, ‘@revrunwisdom:’, ‘@solangeknowles’, ‘@allison4realzzz’, ‘@nickjonas’, ‘@reply’, ‘@anarbor’, ‘@donlemoncnn’, ‘@gfalcone601’, ‘@moonfrye’, ‘@symphnysldr’, ‘@iamspectacular’, ‘@honorsociety’, ‘@questlove’, ‘@guykawasaki’, ‘@dawnrichard’, ‘@_maxwell_’, ‘@somaya_reece’, ‘@mandyyjirouxx’, ‘@teemwilliams’, ‘@greggarbo’, ‘@pennjillette’, ‘@mikeyway’, ‘@matthardybrand’, ‘@iamjonwalker’, ‘@andyroddick’, ‘@kohnt01’, ‘@chris_gorham’, ‘@seankingston’, ‘@joshgroban’, ‘@mousebudden’, ‘@misskatieprice’, ‘@spencerpratt’, ‘@wilw’, ‘@jgshock’, ‘@swear_bot’, ‘@joelmadden’, ‘@techcrunch’, ‘@americanwomannn’, ‘@kelly__rowland’, ‘@mionzera’, ‘@astro_127’, ‘@_@’, ‘@spam’, ‘@sookiebontemps’, ‘@drakkardnoir’, ‘@noh8campaign’, ‘@kayako’, ‘@trvsbrkr’, ‘@qbkilla’, ‘@mw55’, ‘@guykawasaki:’, ‘@donttrythis’, ‘@cv31’, ‘@liljjdagreat’, ‘@tiamowry’, ‘@nickensimontwit’, ‘@holdemtalkradio’, ‘@bradiewebbstack’, ‘@nytimes’, ‘@riskybizness23’, ‘@radityadika’, ‘@adrienne_bailon’, ‘@riccklopes’, ‘@jessicasimpson’, ‘@sportsnation’, ‘@jasonbradbury’, ‘@huffingtonpost’, ‘@oceanup’, ‘@gilbirmingham’, ‘@iconic88’, ‘@the’, ‘@thebrandicyrus’, ‘@gordela’, ‘@thedebbyryan’, ‘@jessemccartney’, ‘@?’, ‘@caiquenogueira’, ‘@celsoportiolli’, ‘@shontelle_layne’, ‘@calvinharris’, ‘@chattyman’, ‘@ali_sweeney’, ‘@anamariecox’, ‘@joshthomas87’, ‘@emilyosment’, ‘@nasa:’, ‘@sevinnyne6126’, ‘@thebiggerlights’, ‘@theboygeorge’, ‘@jbarsodmg’, ‘@goldenorckus’, ‘@warrenwhitlock’, ‘@bobbyedner’, ‘@myfabolouslife’, ‘@descargaoficial’, ‘@ochonflcinco85’, ‘@ninabrown’, ‘@billycurrington’, ‘@oprah’, ‘@junior_lima’, ‘@asherroth’, ‘@starbucks’, ‘@jason_pollock’, ‘@intanalwi’, ‘@harrislacewell’, ‘@serenajwilliams’, ‘@kevinruddpm’, ‘@bigbrotherhoh’, ‘@oliviamunn’, ‘@chamillionaire’, ‘@tamekaraymond’, ‘@teamwinnipeg’, ‘@littlefletcher’, ‘@piercethemind’, ‘@brookandthecity’, ‘@iranbaan:’, ‘@tonyrobbins’, ‘@maestro’, ‘@glennbeck’, ‘@1omarion’, ‘@nadhiyamali’, ‘@slimthugga’, ‘@jason_mraz’, ‘@profbrendi’, ‘@djaaries’, ‘@juanestwiter’, ‘@davegorman’, ‘@zackalltimelow’, ‘@mamajonas’, ‘@itschristablack’, ‘@skydiver’, ‘@gigva’, ‘@currensy_spitta’, ‘@paulwallbaby’, ‘@rpattzproject’, ‘@petewentz:’, ‘@rodrigovesgo’, ‘@drdrew’, ‘@sportsguy33’, ‘@cthagod:’, ‘@hollymadison123’, ‘@mjjnews’, ‘@itsbignicholas’, ‘@_supernatural_’, ‘@santoevandro’, ‘@demar_derozan’, ‘@marthastewart’, ‘@billganz62’, ‘@oodle’, ‘@davidleibrandt’]

Hashtags

~7% of messages contain hashtags

Total Unique Hashtags found: ~94k

Top Hashtags:

[‘#lies’, ‘#fb’, ‘#musicmonday’, ‘#truth’, ‘#iranelection’, ‘#moonfruit’, ‘#tendance’, ‘#jobs’, ‘#ihavetoadmit’, ‘#mariomarathon’, ‘#140mafia’, ‘#tcot’, ‘#zyngapirates’, ‘#followfriday’, ‘#spymaster’, ‘#ff’, ‘#1’, ‘#sotomayor’, ‘#turnon’, ‘#notagoodlook’, ‘#tweetmyjobs’, ‘#hiring:’, ‘#iran’, ‘#fun140’, ‘#jesus’, ‘#72b381.’, ‘#quote’, ‘#tinychat’, ‘#neda’, ‘#militarymon’, ‘#gr88’, ‘#trueblood’, ‘#fail’, ‘#news’, ‘#140army’, ‘#livestrong’, ‘#noh8’, ‘#wpc09’, ‘#music’, ‘#turnoff’, ‘#unacceptable’, ‘#twables’, ‘#masterchef’, ‘#noh84kradison’, ‘#writechat’, ‘#job’, ‘#squarespace’, ‘#michaeljackson’, ‘#2’, ‘#nothingpersonal’, ‘#iphone’, ‘#ala2009’, ‘#mj’, ‘#tdf’, ‘#blogtalkradio’, ‘#mlb’, ‘#1stdraftmovielines’, ‘#p2’, ‘#secretagent’, ‘#tlot’, ‘#72b381’, ‘#honduras’, ‘#twitter’, ‘#jtv’, ‘#tehran’, ‘#gorillapenis’, ‘#porn’, ‘#bb11’, ‘#sotoshow’, ‘#brazillovesatl’, ‘#google’, ‘#oneandother’, ‘#bb10’, ‘#chucknorris’, ‘#cmonbrazil’, ‘#agendasource’, ‘#travel’, ‘#ashes’, ‘#dumbledore’, ‘#freeschapelle’, ‘#tl’, ‘#dealsplus’, ‘#nsfw’, ‘#entourage’, ‘#tech’, ‘#hottest100’, ‘#3693dh…’, ‘#torchwood’, ‘#design’, ‘#teaparty’, ‘#love’, ‘#dontyouhate’, ‘#mileycyrus’, ‘#sgp’, ‘#harrypottersequels’, ‘#peteandinvisiblechildren’, ‘#stopretweets’, ‘#tscc’, ‘#wimbledon’, ‘#hive’, ‘#cubs’, ‘#3’, ‘#redsox’, ‘#photography’, ‘#voss’, ‘#snods’, ‘#lol’, ‘#socialmedia’, ‘#gop’, ‘#health’, ‘#esriuc’, ‘#green’, ‘#follow’, ‘#echo!’, ‘#obama’, ‘#digg’, ‘#shazam’, ‘#hhrs’, ‘#video’, ‘#moonfruit.’, ‘#swineflu’, ‘#politics’, ‘#ebuyer683’, ‘#umad’, ‘#quizdostandup’, ‘#thankyoumichael’, ‘#blogchat’, ‘#wordpress’, ‘#3693dh’, ‘#haiku’, ‘#ttparty’, ‘#lastfm:’, ‘#healthcare’, ‘#hcr’, ‘#ecgc’, ‘#seo’, ‘#apple’, ‘#chuck’, ‘#wine’, ‘#sammie’, ‘#h1n1’, ‘#marketing’, ‘#twitition’, ‘#happybirthdaymitchel18’, ‘#cnn’, ‘#lie’, ‘#rt:’, ‘#art’, ‘#nasa’, ‘#blog’, ‘#quotes’, ‘#bruno’, ‘#business’, ‘#palin’, ‘#mw2’, ‘#hcsm’, ‘#harrypotter’, ‘#4’, ‘#lastfm’, ‘#askclegg’, ‘#photo’, ‘#jobfeedr’, ‘#lgbt’, ‘#lies:’, ‘#ihavetoadmit.i’, ‘#jamlegend,’, ‘#truthbetold’, ‘#mcfly’, ‘#microsoft’, ‘#fashion’, ‘#tweetphoto’, ‘#ebuyer167201’, ‘#noh84adison’, ‘#5’, ‘#mets’, ‘#china’, ‘#bigprize’, ‘#whythehell’, ‘#money’, ‘#sophiasheart’, ‘#finance’, ‘#michael’, ‘#f1’, ‘#adamlambert100k’, ‘#web’, ‘#urwashed’, ‘#moonfruit!’, ‘#1:’, ‘#kayako’, ‘#lies.’, ‘#thankyouaaron’, ‘#food’, ‘#wow’, ‘#moonfruit,’, ‘#facebook’, ‘#ebuyer291’, ‘#ecomonday’, ‘#ihave’, ‘#happybdaydenise’, ‘#postcrossing’, ‘#ichc’, ‘#912’, ‘#demilovatolive’, ‘#gijoemoviefan’, ‘#funny’, ‘#media’, ‘#meowmonday’, ‘#israel’, ‘#blogger’, ‘#forasarney’, ‘#tv’, ‘#topgear’, ‘#chrisisadouche’, ‘#stlcards’, ‘#wec09’, ‘#forex’, ‘#aots1000’, ‘#celebrity’, ‘#dwarffilmtitles’, ‘#6’, ‘#yeg’, ‘#slaughterhouse’, ‘#nfl’, ‘#photog’, ‘#ny’, ‘#firstdraftmovies’, ‘#ufc’, ‘#reddit’, ‘#free’, ‘#iwish’, ‘#etsy’, ‘#rulez’, ‘#sports’, ‘#icmillion’, ‘#mmot’, ‘#webdesign’, ‘#deals’, ‘#moonfruit?’, ‘#pawpawty’, ‘#twitterfahndung’, ‘#billymaystribute’, ‘#sytycd’, ‘#runkeeper’, ‘#scotus’, ‘#yoconfieso’, ‘#mariomarathon,’, ‘#musicmondays’, ‘#lies,’, ‘#findbob’, ‘#realestate’, ‘#sohrab’, ‘#sales’, ‘#metal’, ‘#runescape’, ‘#hypem’, ‘#threadless’, ‘#gay’, ‘#isyouserious’, ‘#hollywood,’, ‘#2:’, ‘#ca,’, ‘#golf’, ‘#diadorock’, ‘#newyork,’, ‘#meteor’, ‘#dailyquestion’, ‘#photoshop’, ‘#saveiantojones’, ‘#musicmonday:’, ‘#rock’, ‘#sex’, ‘#mlbfutures’, ‘#ilove’, ‘#mikemozart’, ‘#nascar’, ‘#indico’, ‘#crossfitgames’, ‘#gratitude’, ‘#quote:’, ‘#creativetechs’, ‘#truth:’, ‘#sharepoint’, ‘#mkt’, ‘#why’, ‘#bigbrother’, ‘#tam7’, ‘#ihate’, ‘#futureruby’, ‘#slickrick’, ‘#105.3’, ‘#youareinatl’, ‘#vegan’, ‘#dontletmefindout’, ‘#imustadmit’, ‘#7’, ‘#twitterafterdark’, ‘#sunnyfacts’, ‘#gilad’, ‘#japan’, ‘#iremember’, ‘#97.3’, ‘#puffdaddy’, ‘#blogher’, ‘#ade2009’, ‘#aaliyah’, ‘#alfredosms’, ‘#95.1’, ‘#truth,’, ‘#twine’, ‘#hiring’]

Questions

Hard to infer exactly whether a message is a question or not, so I ran a couple of different filters:

5W’s, H, ? present ANYWHERE in tweet:

0.102789281948 or 10%

5W’s, H first token or ? last token:

0.0238229662219 or 2%

Just ? ANYWHERE in tweet:

0.0040984928533 or 0.4%

Users

Discovered ~2M unique users

Top Sending Users (many bots):

[‘followermonitor’, ‘Tweet_Words’, ‘currentcet’, ‘currentutc’, ‘whattimeisitnow’, ‘ItIsNow’, ‘ThinkingStiff’, ‘otvrecorder’, ‘delicious50’, ‘Porngus’, ‘craigslistjobs’, ‘GorPen’, ‘hashjobs’, ‘TransAlchemy2’, ‘bot_theta’, ‘CHRISVOSS’, ‘bot_iota’, ‘bot_kappa’, ‘TIPAS’, ‘VeolaJBanner’, ‘StacyDWatson’, ‘LMAObot’, ‘SarahJSlonecker’, ‘AllisonMRussell’, ‘bot_eta’, ‘SandraHOakley’, ‘bot_psi’, ‘bot_tau’, ‘LoreleiRMercer’, ‘bot_zeta’, ‘bot_gamma’, ‘bot_sigma’, ‘bot_lambda’, ‘bot_pi’, ‘bot_epsilon’, ‘bot_nu’, ‘bot_rho’, ‘bot_omicron’, ‘bot_khi’, ‘LindaTYoung’, ‘mensrightsindia’, ‘bot_omega’, ‘bot_ksi’, ‘bot_delta’, ‘bot_alpha’, ‘bot_phi’, ‘CindaDJenkins’, ‘bot_mu’, ‘ImogeneDPetit’, ‘bot_upsilon’, ‘OPENLIST_CA’, ‘openlist’, ‘isygs’, ‘dq_jumon’, ‘gamingscoop’, ‘MildredSLogan’, ‘ObiWanKenobi_’, ‘pulseSearch’, ‘MaryEVo’, ‘ImeldaGMcward’, ‘MaryJNewman’, ‘SharonTForde’, ‘LoriJCornelius’, ‘BrandyWPulliam’, ‘RhondaTLopez’, ‘AprilKOropeza’, ‘CarolETrotman’, ‘SusanATouvell’, ‘dinoperna’, ‘buzzurls’, ‘_Freelance_’, ‘DrSnooty’, ‘illstreet’, ‘bibliotaph_eyes’, ‘loc4lhost’, ‘bsiyo’, ‘BOTHOUSE’, ‘post_ads’, ‘qazkm’, ‘frugaldonkey’, ‘free_post’, ‘groovera’, ‘wonkawonkawonka’, ‘ForksGirlBella’, ‘casinopokera’, ‘dermdirectoryny’, ‘Yoowalk_chat’, ‘mstehr’, ‘hashgoogle’, ‘perry1949’, ‘ensiz_news’, ‘Bezplatno_net’, ‘timesmirror’, ‘work_freelance’, ‘cockbot’, ‘pdurham’, ‘bombtter_raw’, ‘ocha1’, ‘AlairAneko24’, ‘HaiIAmDelicious’, ‘Freshestjobs’, ‘fast_followers’, ‘LeadsForFree’, ‘RideOfYourLife’, ‘AlastairBotan30’, ‘helpmefast25’, ‘TheMLMWizard’, ‘uitrukken’, ‘adoptedALICE’, ‘TKATI’, ‘ezadsncash’, ‘tweetshelp’, ‘LAmetro_traffic’, ‘thinkpozzitive’, ‘StarrNeishaa’, ‘AldenCho36’, ‘JobHits’, ‘wootboot’, ‘smacula’, ‘faithclubdotnet’, ‘DmitriyVoronov’, ‘brownthumbgirl’, ‘NYCjobfeed’, ‘hfradiospacewx’, ‘FakeeKristenn’, ‘MLBDAILYTIMES’, ‘wildingp’, ‘JacksonsReview’, ‘EarthTimesPR’, ‘friedretweet’, ‘Wealthy23’, ‘RokpoolFM’, ‘HDOLLAZ’, ‘_MrSpacely’, ‘Bestdocnyc’, ‘Rabidgun’, ‘flygatwick’, ‘live_china’, ‘friendlinks’, ‘retweetinator’, ‘iamamro’, ‘thayferreira’, ‘AldisDai39’, ‘AndersHana60’, ‘nonstopNEWS’, ‘VivaLaCash’, ‘TravelNewsFeeds’, ‘vuelosplus’, ‘threeporcupines’, ‘DemiAuzziefan’, ‘worldofprint’, ‘KevinEdwardsJr’, ‘REDDITSPAMMOR’, ‘NatValentine’, ‘ChanelLebrun’, ‘nowbot’, ‘hollyswansonUK’, ‘youngrhome’, ‘M_Abricot’, ‘thefakemandyv’, ‘scrapbookingpas’, ‘Naughtytimes’, ‘Opcode1300_bot’, ‘tellsecret’, ‘tboogie937’, ‘Climber_IT’, ‘comlist’, ‘with_a_smile’, ‘USN_retired’, ‘Climber_EngJobs’, ‘Climber_Finance’, ‘Climber_HRJobs’, ‘intanalwi’, ‘Climber_Sales’, ‘nadhiyamali’, ‘wonderfulquotes’, ‘MRAustria’, ‘O2Q’, ‘GL0’, ‘SookieBonTemps’, ‘MRSchweiz’, ‘latinasabor’, ‘nineleal’, ‘casservice’, ‘AltonGin54’, ‘KulerFeed’, ‘_cesaum’, ‘HFMONAIR’, ‘DeeOnDreeYah’, ‘rockstalgica’, ‘iamword’, ‘rpattzproject’, ‘madblackcatcom’, ‘ftfradio’, ‘marciomtc’, ‘SocialNetCircus’, ‘AnotherYearOver’, ‘ichig’, ‘tcikcik’, ‘HelenaMarie210’, ‘mrbax0’, ‘SWBot’, ‘DayTrends’, ‘_Embry_Call_’, ‘eProducts24’, ‘The_Sims_3’, ‘tom_ssa’, ‘woxy_vintage’, ‘urbanmusic2000’, ‘dopeguhxfresh’, ‘erections’, ‘DudeBroChill’, ‘lookingformoney’, ‘drnschneider’, ‘MosesMaimonides’, ’92Blues’, ‘elarmelar’, ‘rock937fm’, ‘sonicfm’, ‘erikadotnet’, ‘sky0311’, ‘weqx’, ‘brandamc’, ‘Hot106’, ‘woxy_live’, ‘ksopthecowboy’, ‘vixalius’, ‘cogourl’, ‘Cashintoday’, ‘Andrewdaflirt’, ‘oodle’, ‘mkephart25’, ‘doomed’, ‘spotifyuri’, ‘mangelat’, ‘Cody_K’, ‘swayswaystacey’, ‘KLLY953’, ‘onlaa’, ‘Ginger_Swan’, ‘Call_Embry’, ‘conservatweet’, ‘weerinlelystad’, ‘ruhanirabin’, ‘tmgadops’, ‘wakemeupinside1’, ‘horaoficial’, ‘xstex’, ‘franzidee’, ‘tommytrc’, ‘khopmusic’, ‘tez19’, ‘GaryGotnought’, ‘UnemployKiller’, ‘felloff’, ‘Kalediscope’, ‘TheRealSherina’, ‘jasonsfreestuff’, ‘johnkennick’, ‘sel_gomezx3’, ‘OE3’, ‘AddisonMontg’, ‘_rosieCAKES’, ‘neownblog’, ‘PrinceP23’, ‘ontd_fluffy’, ‘USofAl’, ‘Kacizzle88’, ‘somalush’, ‘FrankieNichelle’, ‘jiva_music’, ‘itz_cookie’, ‘soundOfTheTone’, ‘knowheremom’, ‘Jayme1988’, ‘TrafficPilot’, ‘tweetalot’, ‘TheStation1610’, ‘lasvegasdivorce’, ‘1000_LINKS_NOW2’, ‘KeepOnTweeting’, ‘uFreelance’, ‘ChocoKouture’, ‘Magic983’, ‘SnarkySharky’, ‘agthekid’, ‘cashinnow’, ‘jamokie’, ‘jessicastanely’, ‘Q103Albany’, ‘GPGTwit’, ‘xAmberNicholex’, ‘wjtlplaylist’, ‘sjAimee’, ‘chrisduhhh’, ‘failbus’, ‘1stwave’, ‘RichardBejah’, ‘nyanko_love’]

Web Queries Overlap

How much overlap is there between tweets and trending web search queries?

I took the top trending queries during the days of my twitter crawl from Google Trends, then query expanded each trending query until the length was 6 tokens so as to equalize the average lengths. Then, I simply counted how many tweets match at least 2 (cleaned) tokens of any of these query-expanded trends:

0.0185654981775 or 2%

That’s it for now. I have some more stats but need a bit more time to clean those up before publishing here.

Notes

Can’t distribute my data set unfortunately, but it shouldn’t take too long to assemble a comparable set via Twitter’s spritzer feed – that’ll probably be more useful as it’ll be more update-to-date than the one I analyzed here. Feel free to pull my stats off if you find them useful (top hashtags and users are in JSON format).

10 Comments

Filed under Data Mining, Research, Search, Social, Statistics, Trends, Twitter

Is the Facebook Application Platform Fair?

Take a look at this stats deck from O’Reilly’s Graphing Social Patterns conference:

http://en.oreilly.com/gspeast2008/public/asset/attachment/2950

Fairly in-depth and recent [6/01/2008] analysis of the application usage in Facebook and MySpace.

As expected, lots of power law behavior.

I found the slides describing churn to be pretty interesting. Since October 2007, nine of the top fifteen most popular applications are new. However, only three of those new applications debuted after March 2008. I expect the amount of churn in the top spots to continue to drop based on the recent declining active usage trends and Facebook’s efforts to curb application spam (new UI that puts applications in a separate profile tab, app module minimizing, viral friend messaging limits, security compliance, etc).

What I would find even more interesting is a study of the number of applications users install, and how those moving averages have changed over time. Like say the number of applications a typical user installs is 4. Once the user reaches that threshold, what’s the churn like then? Specifically, what are the chances that a user will add a new app? Or maybe an even better metric: how long does it take, and how does this length of time compare to when the user had 1 app and increased to 2, or 2 apps and increased to 3, etc.? Basically, what’s the adoption rate/times based on current application counts?

I believe it becomes harder to influence a user to add or replace for a new app if the number of current apps the user has is high. I think most users, without even knowing it, have a threshold of how many total apps they are willing display on their profile – and that this threshold is based on an ongoing evaluation of the utility and efficiency of the page. Each app takes up real estate on the profile page, and a “rational” user will only show so many until page load times degrade and/or core modules (wall, general information, albums, networks) get drowned in clutter and thus become difficult for users to locate. Of course, social networks like MySpace which have very minimal profile page design constraints prove that most users are irrational 😉 – but it’s this design control that greatly helped Facebook dominate the market IMO.

If this is true, then it means that first movers really, really win in the Facebook apps world. Companies like Slide and Rockyou manage many of the top applications, and given the power law market share phenomena, they control a majority stake of application usage and installs. Many of these companies had the early bird advantage, and once winners, always winners – acquisitions of emerging applications, leveraging branding and existing audiences (a.k.a monopoly) to cross promote potentially copy-cat applications faster and wider than the competition, etc. Monopolies inside Facebook have unsettling ramifications, as they block newcomers from capturing profile space. If they fail to innovate (as most monopolies) then next-gen application development may never get through.

Now, if users do have an application count threshold, and it becomes successively more difficult to replace/add a new app as this count increases, then any apps developed now have a substantially rarer chance of gaining market share. If winner’s win, first movers reap, and churn becomes improbable over time, then the early top apps have already most likely filled up users’ allocated app slots.

I find thinking of the profile page as a resource allocation problem rather fascinating. Essentially, there are finite resources on a page and we expect rational users to perform some optimization to allocate resources to maximize utility for themselves and for others (potential game theory link). Once users fill up these resources, human laziness kicks in. Another warrant for improbable churn is that users who want to add new applications after filling up their resource limit will need to remove an existing app to make space. The standards for change are higher now, as the user must compare the new app to an existing preferred app (which probably is a popular early-bird app that friends use), and so the decision will incur a trade-off.

One could also argue that with more apps available now (second slide shows that despite sluggish usage the # of app’s being developed is still growing insanely) users are burdened with more choices. Or, one could argue because most users have reached their app limit, and thus, churn has become improbable, the discoverability of new apps among friends (a critical channel for adoption) also becomes improbable.

Under this theory, especially in context of Facebook’s current efforts and app stats, the growth of new app adoption in social networks will continue to slow down.

So what can be done here?

The platform needs to encourage more churn by building a fairer market that matches users to high quality apps that satisfy their expressed intents. At the end of the day, these applications are really just web pages, but unlike the web, they do not leverage important primitives like linking and meta tags. Search engines like Google and Yahoo use these features extensively to calculate authority and relevance. In the long run, as the number of sources increases, advanced ranking algorithms and marketplaces are necessary to scale and ensure fairness to worthy tail publishers. Maybe social networks should inherit these system properties to bolster their tail applications.

Also, Facebook needs to encourage users to variate or add more applications to their profile page. Facebook’s move to put applications in its own profile tab may very well achieve this goal, but at a consequence of lowering their visibility.

Anyways, just some random thoughts about the current state of Facebook apps. It’ll be very interesting to see how their platform progresses and how it will be perceived by end users and developers in the future.

3 Comments

Filed under Economics, Facebook, Non-Technical-Read, Social, Statistics, Trends